Good morning. One year to go, and one point in it. The countdown is marked by a clutch of polls that show the Tories have cut Labour's lead. They follow our ICM Wisdom Index at the weekend, and in the same way show the gap closed to a single point, which will put a spring in CCHQ's step. But a few cheery polls aren't enough. The papers offer their diagnoses for what's not right with the Tory case, and it all comes down to David Cameron. The consensus is that he needs to do more to persuade voters that he is on their side, particularly those temptted by Ukip.
 The Mail in particular is packed with handy hints that no doubt Dave will delight in reading. "Over the coming year, he must persuade voters his party is not merely economically reliable but actually capable of delivering a better life for them and their families," its leader says. "There remains a substantial small-c conservative majority in Britain, believing in patriotism, self-reliance, hard work and the family. Mr Cameron has 365 days to unite it behind him." The PM's great friend Sarah Vine, aka Mrs Gove, lasers in on Dave's problem with women: "…as my husband is fond of saying, 'happy wife, happy life'. And Mrs Electorate isn't happy." Her tips: Listen to Sam, more female voices, fight dirty, sort out the party's dire website, and send every voter a copy of Liam Byrne's "I'm afraid there is no money" note (nice one). Mr Cameron's NBFs at the Sun say Labour is dire. Of the PM they say "Cameron may not believe in much" - thanks a lot - but knows fixing the economy is important and the voters might too. "After another year of better times, maybe they will". Hardly gushing, but useful. The Mirror in its leader says Ed Miliband is in for the "fight of his life". Its own poll by Survation is full of good news for Dave: not just a one point lead, but shows 54pc believe the economy is recovering, and two thirds - 70pc - say their financial situation is about the same or getting better. Mr Cameron also wins the PM vote ahead of Mr Miliband.
One year out is a useful landmark. What do we know? The main parties are now neck and neck, which means there is all to play for. Labour is preparing for a tight contest which is winnable, but by no means certain. The Tories are more optimistic now than at any point since 2010. Fears of a panic after the European elections are receding: even the most resolute troublemakers seem ready to rally around. Talk of a delegation demanding concessions has died down. Mr Cameron and Lynton Crosbygave a pep talk to MPs last night, and were well received: no wonder - the game's afoot. The two uncertainties are first, Scotland (of which, more below). The other uncertainty is Ukip - will it fade or continue to be a factor? No one knows. Which means the 2015 general election is wide open.
LACK OF SERIOUSNESS BLIGHTS NO CAMPAIGNIn the event of a yes vote, the outcome of the general election would be the least of our worries. As I blogged yesterday, it would tank the markets, whack sterling, force up interest rates and see the UK relegated to the status of a second-rate player in world affairs. But despite repeated blows to the nationalist case - today's Scotsman reveals widespread opposition to a currency union from English businesses - the Yes campaign is closing in on the Unionist effort, which is still preoccupied with internal feuding. Labour in particular seems to be letting tribal feeling get the better of them; Labour sources are busy deriding David Cameron as 'toxic' in the pages of the Herald. The whole thing reeks of a political class that is simply not taking the nationalist threat seriously enough.
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